02. BEST CASE/WORST CASE SCENARIOS FOR VANCOUVER CAMPAIGN

(The following article is from the April 1-15, 2008 issue of People's Voice, Canada's leading communist newspaper. Articles can be reprinted free if the source is credited. Subscription rates in Canada: $25/year, or $12 low income rate; for U.S. readers - $25 US per year; other overseas readers - $25 US or $35 CDN per year. Send to: People's Voice, c/o PV Business Manager, 133 Herkimer St. Unit 502, Hamilton, ON, L8P 2H3).

By Kimball Cariou

The stage is being set for municipal elections across BC on November 15, but nowhere is the scene more crowded than in Vancouver, where half a dozen mayoralty candidates are jockeying for attention. Electoral divisions on the left and centre of the spectrum leave the right-wing Non-Partisan Alliance in the pole position at the moment, but that could still change. If not, the civic left, represented by the Coalition of Progressive Electors for 40 years, could be squeezed out of the race, with disastrous consequences for working people and the poor.

     On the positive side, the NPA also remains divided between supporters of Mayor Sam Sullivan (a federal Conservative) and councillor Peter Ladner (a Liberal). Faced with a mayoralty nomination announcement by Ladner, Sullivan quickly agreed to drop the NPA's rule against challenging incumbents. The move signals Sullivan's confidence that he has the backing of the majority of NPA members, despite widespread voter unhappiness about his autocratic style and his pro-big business stance on key issues.

     Some read Ladner's challenge as a tactical move to keep Liberals inside the NPA's "big tent" in the wake of yet another mayoralty announcement. Cold-shouldered by long-time NPA colleagues for his own independent streak, Parks Commissioner Alan de Genova (also a Liberal) recently bolted to Vision Vancouver, the centrist group formed by ex-Mayor Larry Campbell and several city councillors originally elected as part of the labour-backed COPE majority in 2002.

     After leaving COPE, Vision won four council seats in 2005. But the new party has been an uneasy alliance of mainstream New Democrats, federal Liberals, and independents. Largely dependent on financial backing from "progressive" developers and professionals, Vision has also retained the support of some sections of the trade union movement. But if de Genova wins the mayoralty nomination, it would indicate that Vision's Liberal wing has gained the upper hand, to the dismay of some NDPers who had seen the new party as their surrogate on the municipal scene.

     Two NDP-aligned candidates are also seeking the Vision nomination: Vancouver-Fairview MLA Gregor Robertson, and ex-COPE city councillor Raymond Louie.

     The crowded Vision race has overshadowed a growing public demand for unity of the centre-left forces against the NPA, which had seemed vulnerable after Sullivan dragged out last year's strikes by municipal workers. Appeals to Robertson in particular to run as an independent backed by both Vision and COPE have gone unanswered. Most recently, Vision backroom figure Geoff Meggs threw his hat into the ring for a city council nomination, another sign that Vision insiders are distinctly cool towards any cooperation with COPE.

     From the COPE perspective, a new opinion survey conducted by Ladner brought some encouraging news. The poll of 400 residents shows the three parties virtually neck-and-neck, indicating that COPE's bedrock public support has not been wiped out by the political infighting on city council. However, COPE seems unlikely to receive the levels of labour backing which have been essential for its campaigns over the last few decades.

     There has been a grassroots movement to urge COPE's lone city councillor, David Cadman, to run for mayor, especially if de Genova wins the Vision nomination. In that scenario, Cadman would appeal to a wide range of voters disenchanted with Conservative Sullivan and Liberal de Genova, who share common positions on most issues. Labour backing for Vision would start to shift back towards COPE, giving it the muscle to rebuild across the city. Cadman could become mayor with several COPE councillors at City Hall.

     On the other hand, gambling on an unsuccessful Cadman campaign could leave COPE with nobody on city council. And it remains to be seen how Vision's mid-June nomination meeting will play out. A Robertson nomination could still leave room for Vision-COPE cooperation, such as a deal to limit the numbers of candidates by each party, maximising chances to defeat the NPA on council, school board and park board.

     A Raymond Louie campaign could be more problematic. On one hand, it would be difficult for COPE to play the spoiler in Louie's bid to become the city's first Chinese-Canadian mayor. However, he is still remembered for abandoning important COPE positions during his 2002-05 term on council, for example by voting for higher transit fares.

     In the meantime, social problems continue to mount here in "Shangri-La By The Sea." Homelessness keeps rising as home ownership and rental housing become more expensive, and the NPA-led city council has passed yet another tax shift, moving more of the burden for services away from the corporate sector and onto homeowners and small business. Preparations for the 2010 Winter Olympics have shifted valuable resources from more urgent priorities, and Mayor Sullivan's "eco-density" strategy has been widely condemned as a cover for imposing the burden of new growth onto under-serviced east side neighbourhoods.

     This is a recipe for voter anger, but until the three major parties settle their slates (the NPA will start with a partial set of nominations in early June), the electoral picture here remains murky.

     Celebrating its 40th anniversary this year, COPE could make a comeback from its 2005 losses. But in a full-blown three-way race, COPE could potentially suffer further defeats, and the NPA could be re-elected with little opposition at City Hall, crippling the movement for progressive civic reform during the pre- and post-Olympics period. Time is running out to forge some measure of unity to avert this worst-case scenario.

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