10) NEW MISREPRESENTATIONS AIMED AT NORTH KOREA

(The following article is from the April 16-30,  2010 issue of People's Voice, Canada's leading communist newspaper. Articles can be reprinted free if the source is credited. Subscription rates in Canada: $30/year, or $15 low income rate; for U.S. readers - $45 US per year; other overseas readers - $45 US or $50 CDN per year. Send to: People's Voice, c/o PV Business Manager, 706 Clark Drive, Vancouver, BC, V5L 3J1.)

By Sean Burton

     There has been a plethora of recent media coverage stemming from the North Korean census, and the sinking of the South Korean patrol ship Cheonan.

     The census was North Korea's first since 1993. Conducted in October 2009 with the assistance of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the results show a population of just over 24 million. That number was considerably different than the 18 million forecast by "experts" who believed that the economic slump in the North would decrease the population; in other words that millions of people had starved to death. The Chosun Ilbo newspaper offered a caveat to the tune that since 1996 "when more people began starving to death" the DPRK began to aggressively promote childbirth.

     But what about the two or three million people who supposedly died during the period of difficulty known as the "Arduous March", a time of shortages not unlike Cuba's "Special Period"? One professor from Seoul National University compared the 2008 and 1993 census data and concluded that the number of deaths was about 340,000. Though room for error exists, there is apparently no statistical basis for saying two or three million deaths. To some observers, the data also suggests that the Korean People's Army is not quite so large as the common estimate of 1.1 million troops, raising the possibility that South Korea's intelligence organizations have been inflating the numbers for some years.

     Quite a bit of data was gathered by the census, and it is noteworthy that the DPRK allowed the results to be made public. Some UNFPA officials have suggested that the North wants more support from the international community. Well, who can blame them given all the hostility they receive?

     North Korea's enemies often claim that it is a closed and secretive country. The release of this data should, but probably will not, shut some of those people up. It even includes information on household heating (mostly coal and wood due to energy shortages), average household size (slightly small by South Korean standards), and running water and bathrooms (to which most households have access). Data on life span shows an aging population, which might make one wonder about that childbirth policy suggested above. Life expectancy has also decreased, not too surprising given the deprivations of the last fifteen years.

     Cooler heads in South Korea are critical of any attempt to paint clear pictures of North Korea based on hearsay and the words of defectors, much of which is presented in the South Korean media (and indeed, media around the world) as factual. This has especially been the case since the DPRK's currency reform last year. There have been stories of riots, soldiers ordered ready to shoot, executions of Worker's Party officials, and so on. Yet ultimately, none of those things can be verified, not even the "total failure" of the currency reform. According to Kim Keun-sik of Kyungnam National University, it may have worked out; that the new notes are still being circulated is not evidence of collapse and chaos, and for the time being the DPRK has strengthened its planned economy and put inflation in check. Put another way, the DPRK is acting according to a plan for future development, not on the whim of a mad-man as some would have it.

     Meanwhile, in the midst of attempts to restart six-party talks, a South Korean patrol ship was sunk after an explosion while it was in apparently dangerous waters. A number of South Korean broadcasters announced that the Cheonan had been attacked by North Korea. This baseless accusation was refuted by the government and the military, but a clear answer is hard to come by. There have been suggestions that a torpedo caused the sinking, but there are conflicting reports of mines or running aground. The presidential office has also claimed now that it "never ruled out a North Korean attack".

     The South Korean military may be trying to avoid the truth of the matter. Why would the North make such a reckless attack when attempts are being made to resume talks, and when Kim Jong Il is soon to visit China? This appears to be the opinion of the South's intelligence director, who has said that no unusual activity on the part of the North had been observed. But the war of words continues, with the Chosun Ilbo quoting "a retired naval operations chief" that North Korea does things that are "inexplicable by common sense".