11) CHEONAN INCIDENT: QUESTIONS AND CONTRADICTIONS

(The following article is from the June 16-30, 2010 issue of People's Voice, Canada's leading communist newspaper. Articles can be reprinted free if the source is credited. Subscription rates in Canada: $30/year, or $15 low income rate; for U.S. readers - $45 US per year; other overseas readers - $45 US or $50 CDN per year. Send to: People's Voice, c/o PV Business Manager, 706 Clark Drive, Vancouver, BC, V5L 3J1.)

By Sean Burton, PV correspondent in South Korea

For almost two months, the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan was marked with confusion, but it became very apparent within a short period of time who South Korea's leaders wanted to blame: their neighbour to the north.

     On May 20, Seoul announced the results of the investigation into the sinking, charging the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DRPK/North Korea) with responsibility. More specifically, Seoul claims that a small North Korean submarine fired a torpedo which caused an explosion that split the warship in two, taking the lives of 46 of the 104 crew members.

     Seoul claims that its case is unshakable, but important questions remain. Seoul's evidence hinges on torpedo fragments which appear to have been rusting under the water for several months, and whose markings appear handwritten rather than inscribed, and using a different word than usual. The investigation team was entirely made up of states ideologically opposed to the DPRK and keen to tighten their economic strangulation of that country.

     Beyond the torpedo itself are the questionable circumstances of the sinking. We are expected to believe that a small task-force of North Korean vessels made its way towards the South in secret, sunk the Cheonan and returned to base without being found by other patrol ships and helicopters.

     This sequence of events is contradictory to earlier information. Until recently, it was maintained by the South Korean and US military that no unusual North Korean naval activity had been detected during the days surrounding the sinking. On April 2, Seoul announced that two North Korean submarines were said to have been in the area, but unconnected to the sinking. In any case, the official results specified that a different class of submarine was involved. Furthermore, a joint US-South Korean exercise was underway at the time, and the Cheonan itself specialized in countering submarines.

     As the Hankyoreh reported: "...if things transpired as the investigation team announced, then a North Korean submarine penetrated the South Korean-U.S. surveillance net, waited precisely where the Cheonan would be approaching, sank the Cheonan in one shot, and then leisurely disappeared after completely avoiding a naval anti-submarine net..." (May 21, 2010)

     Additionally, there were a number of statements from intelligence and military officials, including intelligence chief Won See-hoon and defence minister Kim Tae-young. Both men stated late in March and in early April that there was no indication of any North Korean movement, and that North Korean involvement was unlikely. It would seem that in the subsequent month, these opinions had been suppressed.

     There are also conflicting reports about whether or not a torpedo or its explosion were detected, and that given the location of the sinking, whether it was likely that the ship had run aground. An admiral representing the inquiry had stated that there was no sign of North Korean infiltration, but has since reversed that position. A soldier on a nearby island witnessed a pillar of water consistent with a torpedo explosion.

     Given the complications, the incident may have been manufactured into a North Korean attack by the right-wing Lee Myung-bak administration.

     The DPRK has strongly denied any involvement. A statement from the DPRK's Central News Agency (KCNA) in early April said the South Korean navy had only itself to blame for the loss of its ship. Since the results of the investigation were released, the DPRK accused Seoul of fabricating the evidence. Most importantly, Pyongyang has offered to send representatives of its National Defence Commission to the South to verify the evidence. The South clearly has no interest in accepting the offer, which could perhaps spark a new investigation.

     Lee Myung-bak made his position clear late in May by ignoring the offer and stating unequivocally that North Korea deliberately attacked the South. He has ordered that all trade between the two countries cease, prohibited North Korean merchant traffic from Southern waters, and ordered the military to step up its preparedness. There is even a plan to restart psychological warfare on the DMZ.

     The US unsurprisingly backs its staunchly anti-communist ally. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was in Seoul on May 26 to condemn North Korea and discuss further sanctions with the South. A large-scale joint anti-submarine exercise has also begun. The North has responded by announcing that it will fire directly at any loudspeakers and displays used for psychological warfare, and may well seize remaining South Korean property in joint economic zones.

     Even if one were to accept that the DPRK sank the Cheonan, the fact remains that the hostile state of affairs was inevitable due to the belligerent stance of South Korea since Lee Myung-bak became president. Not only have tensions increased, but there was a naval clash last year in which a North Korean vessel was heavily damaged with unknown casualties.

     There have also been increasing restrictions on travel and trade which led the DPRK to seize South Korean property in a popular tourist area. The DPRK has announced that it will no longer abide by a series of protocols agreed to in 2004 to avoid accidental border clashes, particularly at sea.

     Furthermore, the results of the investigation have yet to be totally accepted by a number of countries, most notably China and Russia. Russia is sending its own team to inspect the evidence, while China announced it desires a joint investigation between itself, the UN Command in Korea, and the Korean People's Army.

     While meeting with Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, President Lee continued to press for support regarding sanctions, and the South Korean government is not keen to give the North a chance to defend itself. The situation continues to develop, and a peaceful resolution is not yet out of the question. Nevertheless, relations between the two countries will not improve until Seoul accepts some responsibility for increasing tensions, instead of pretending to be an innocent victim at every opportunity.